1. SPS Accounts:
    Do you find yourself coming back time after time? Do you appreciate the ongoing hard work to keep this community focused and successful in its mission? Please consider supporting us by upgrading to an SPS Account. Besides the warm and fuzzy feeling that comes from supporting a good cause, you'll also get a significant number of ever-expanding perks and benefits on the site and the forums. Click here to find out more.
    Dismiss Notice
Dismiss Notice
You are currently viewing Boards o' Magick as a guest, but you can register an account here. Registration is fast, easy and free. Once registered you will have access to search the forums, create and respond to threads, PM other members, upload screenshots and access many other features unavailable to guests.

BoM cultivates a friendly and welcoming atmosphere. We have been aiming for quality over quantity with our forums from their inception, and believe that this distinction is truly tangible and valued by our members. We'd love to have you join us today!

(If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. If you've forgotten your username or password, click here.)

Are Polls a Sham?

Discussion in 'Alley of Dangerous Angles' started by Aldeth the Foppish Idiot, Sep 17, 2004.

  1. Aldeth the Foppish Idiot

    Aldeth the Foppish Idiot Armed with My Mallet O' Thinking Veteran

    Joined:
    May 15, 2003
    Messages:
    12,434
    Media:
    46
    Likes Received:
    250
    Gender:
    Male
    Remove all ads!
    According to this article, all the polling you see regarding the U.S. Presidential Election, may not be worth a hill of beans.

    According to the article, national pollsters do not have cell phone lists, of which there are 169 million in the U.S. Moreover, among younger voters, many have a cell phone, but not a traditional land line. So there people are never represented in the poll numbers.

    Add in another 5 million Americans currently overseas, and you have to wonder if the polls really are a representative sample of the population.

    Read the whole article: here
     
    Aldeth the Foppish Idiot, Sep 17, 2004
    #1
  2. Blackthorne TA

    Blackthorne TA Master in his Own Mind Staff Member ★ SPS Account Holder Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) New Server Contributor [2012] (for helping Sorcerer's Place lease a new, more powerful server!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2000
    Messages:
    10,409
    Media:
    40
    Likes Received:
    232
    Gender:
    Male
    Of course they are. The same way statistics in general are.

    In my opinion, someone pays for a poll or for data gathering in general because they want to show backup data to support their position, not because they want an unbiased indicator.
     
    Blackthorne TA, Sep 17, 2004
    #2
  3. Splunge

    Splunge Bhaal’s financial advisor Adored Veteran Pillars of Eternity SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!) Torment: Tides of Numenera SP Immortalizer (for helping immortalize Sorcerer's Place in the game!)

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2003
    Messages:
    6,815
    Media:
    6
    Likes Received:
    336
    Aldeth, you should have made this a poll. :p

    Basically, for a poll to be statistically valid, everyone must have an equal chance of being selected. So with so many exclusions re telephones, the validity is weakened. Not to mention the fact that the answer given can be influenced by the way in which the question is asked.
     
    Splunge, Sep 17, 2004
    #3

  4. Bion Gems: 21/31
    Latest gem: Pearl

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2004
    Messages:
    1,356
    Likes Received:
    2
    very amusing, Inspector Splunge!

    I agree that there will be alot of gaming of the polls this election; I'm sure there are plenty of Repub strategests hoping that the post-SBV Bush spike in the polls will make lots of people think that, gee, even if the SBV are more full of holes than Swiss cheese, there must be *something* in their story if so many people have bought it. And remember the network/cable dispute over exit polling results during the 2000 elections, and how that affected the outcome of the election...
     
    Bion, Sep 17, 2004
    #4

  5. Blue Loon Gems: 4/31
    Latest gem: Sunstone

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2004
    Messages:
    76
    Likes Received:
    0
    If you read the entire article you will realize it is actually about a Pro-Kerry person trying to make excuses about why the polls point toward bush.

    If this was really meant to mean anything it would include some other information like the number of home telephones in the US. I'm sure this number is much greater than the amount of cell phone numbers. Or, if you consider that most people that own cell phones also have a home phone; this article turns to foolishness.
     
    Blue Loon, Sep 17, 2004
    #5

  6. teekc Gems: 23/31
    Latest gem: Black Opal

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2002
    Messages:
    1,509
    Likes Received:
    0
    In my psychology class back in Malaysia, my lecturer told me a story about poll in u.s. happened during presidental election. (this was sometime ago and my memory is blur)

    It was Kennedy (not sure, might be nixon or truman as well), the story was they ran several polls troughout the period some guy had much highier rating than Kennedy. But as we all know, Kennedy was the presudent, and some guy remained some guy. Those people used telephones as their sampling. Using this method, the restricted their survey in a small social class. The moral of the story was not everyone who votes in the 60's has a telephone.
     
    teekc, Sep 17, 2004
    #6
Sorcerer's Place is a project run entirely by fans and for fans. Maintaining Sorcerer's Place and a stable environment for all our hosted sites requires a substantial amount of our time and funds on a regular basis, so please consider supporting us to keep the site up & running smoothly. Thank you!

Sorcerers.net is a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program designed to provide a means for sites to earn advertising fees by advertising and linking to products on amazon.com, amazon.ca and amazon.co.uk. Amazon and the Amazon logo are trademarks of Amazon.com, Inc. or its affiliates.