Bird Flu

Remove all ads!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4337918.stm

It would appear that the "deadly" bird flu has reached Europe now. The Turkeys that died in er.. Turkey are confirmed as having H5N1 strain, which was responsible for 60 deaths in South East Asia, the outbreak in Romania is assumed to be the same.

 

I don't see why everyone is so certain that this is going to become an epidemic. As I understand it, the virus doesn't spread readily from bird to person, but spreads more readily person to person. While it is sad that 60 people have so far died from this disease, it certainly doesn't suggest it is reaching pandemic proportions.

 

@Aldeth:
Because the masses are just a bunch of 'fraidy-dogs. Those pansies don't know the meaning of sick. Let THEM get an average of three sinus infections a year, and see how scared they are of the bird flu then.

 

i read on MSN news that normal flu kills 15,000 people and this bird flu 'epidemic' wouldn't kill that many more so I think it's just overreaction

 

There are two issues here: first how dangerous is the infection once contracted, second how easy it will spread. From what I understand, bird flu is much more dangerous once contracted; a relatively large percentage of people who get it die. Fortunately, the strains which appearred so far did not spread easily. OTOH, the normal flu is not so virulent, but highly contagious; practically everybody gets it.

So I think the fear is that some strain of bird flu might mutate into something highly infectious; then what can happen... there were recently some articles about the Spanis flu (which happened in the twenties); more people died by that that in the whole world war I (up to 50 milion people).

I read that bird flu was also confirmed in Romania.

 

I actually read a quite interesting research paper (written from an investment banking point of view) about this last week. Basically the current strains is relatively harmless due to it not spreading quickly in humans but the worry is that with the large numbers of infected migratory birds there is an increased chance of different avian flu strains combining and mutating into a dangerous one similar to the Spanish flu - in which case 15,000 dead would be a drop in the bucket as we would be having casualties in the millions.

As we saw with SAARS, our modern transportation systems can spread such a disease like crazy and the increased population and population density in urban centers would make it even worse.

In such an event the impact on world economies would be quite severe, particularly given that the type of flu they are worried about is most lethal among healthy people with strong immune systems (your immune system actually kills you trying to fight the flu).

The real bad part of our situation is that there is a terribly inadequate capability to generate enough flu vaccine in a short enough period of time to really help. This would really stir up the old debate re. the haves and have nots as you can bloody well bet that the developed countries who have the capability to produce the vaccine will not be sharing any until their own need is met.

Interestingly, the message of the paper I read wasn't that there would be huge losses so you should do X to put your money in a safe place. Instead the message was that big business and the wealthy should put money towards increasing the world capability to produce vaccine in order to mitigate the damage that an avian flu pandemic could cause to the global economy. It is a futile suggestion given the modern corporate mindset but I thought that it was interesting to see business analysts saying the same thing as the scientists for once.

 

So, you guys think we could be in trouble here?

 

People are starting to get worried here in Australia. With our close proximity to affected areas in southern Asia, there is a very real chance of bird flu making the jump into this country. Customs is working hard on it, as I understand.

Once again, our isolation and levels of primary industry/non-reliance on imported produce seems to be the best defence we have. I would be more concerned about its impact on industry, unless the virus made it to one of the few heavily-populated areas in the country.

 

I don't think there's much anyone can do to prevent it. As the name suggests, bird flu is carried by birds. It is estimated that tens of millions of birds have already died from this. As we all know many birds are migratory, and I don't think there's anything any nation can do to prevent birds from flying into the borders.

 

Looks like Greece will be the next outbreak location for the avian population. Exact strain still being determined.

Sarevok,
At the moment, no I don't think we're in trouble. It still takes a major change in the genetic makeup before it could reach pandemic proportions. Still, it bears watching.

There was a good sketch on Rory Bremner on Sunday night. George Bush announcing the next deadly menace and proclaiming the "War on Birds" with the American Rifle Association as the front line troups.