Elections in Bulgaria

Remove all ads!

Well, I dunno how many people out there will care, but we had elections last Saturday and today the final results came out. Here's how it is:

Participation rate: around 55%

BSP - "pro-Europe" Socialists, some social democrates and other left-wingers - 82 seats in parliament (out of 240)
NDSV - centrists, liberals leaning a bit to the right - 53
DPS - "liberals," predominantly ethnic minority centrist party - 34
"Ataka" - far right nationalist protest movement (some anti-Jewish, a lot of anti-US and anti-EU comments) - 21
ODS - right-wing moderates, various democratic parties - 20
DSB - ditto, used to be part of the ODS, also has some social-democrates (don't ask) - 17
BNS - coalition of ex-ODS, agrarians and others - 13

It's gonna be a weird one, this time... First time no party or likely coalition can claim 50+% of the 240 seats. Also. first time a movement that can be classified as a far right one has made it into parliament, although there are quite a few skeptics (including me) thinking their speeches mostly an act to get some of the disillusioned votes. Still, they have already troubled a few international and a lot of local observers. Actually, one of the parties of the BNS - the VMRO - moderate nationalists that are the successors of an (in)famous revolutionary movement fighting for the Bulgarians in Macedonia around the beginning of the 20th century. Kinda like the Sinn Fein in Ireland, I think. At any rate, it's likely that socialists and the DPS will attempt to get 50% somehow, but the other parties seem adamant against them so far.

By the way, a clarification: in Bulgaria, socialists are on the left (usually absorbing communists in the far left and social-democrates more to the center, the so-called liberals in the center, and democrates in the right. Funny how the different parts of the spectrum vary with countries, isn't it?

 

Interesting, but I would not call Sinn Féin 'moderate', though the world press gives the illusion of this and they are known for being anti-Jewish also (check out the pro-palistine murals in nationalist areas), but secured a majority for the nationalist side of things.

It seems that the Bulgarias election was more successful as both communities in N.Ireland voted for their favourit extremeists! Though I voted for the minor Alliance party which is made of both sides of the community, however they only have 10 seats.

 

I drew the parallel to Sinn Fein as IMRO today is a political extension of a once-terrorist organization . VMRO, translated IMRO stands for internal Macedonian Revolutionary organization - a mostly anti-Turkish group that splintered around the late 1900's, and now there is a Bulgarian party IMRO, a MAcedonian party IMRO, and quite a few other offshoots. Until those elections the IMRO here was among the more radical parties among those with significant support (more than a few hundred wackos). However, they can be considered moderates compared to Ataka... and besides, nationalist has always carried a radical inclination, at least for me, and they can be considered rather sane. In fact the coalition they are in is one of the more theoretically acceptable one - right-wing liberals (think: business oriented right without the corporations - we don't have many, unless you count foreign "investors") + agrarians + "patriotic" conservative party.
However, it's kinda weird to talk about conservatives here... after all, when speaking of "the old days" most people think of communism, and pre-communist conservative and liberal parties were persecuted in the late 1940's (and simply outlawed in the 1949 constitution, iirc).

 

Yes I understand what you mean, and for me it was an interesting thread, I just feared that people would get the wrong idea of Sinn Féin's (not completely) hidden agenda.

 

No they won't, and this is the whole problem. Since no right-winged formation is willing to cooperate with BSP, BSP's hands are kinda tied. They will seek a BSP-DPS-NDSV coalition, which is likely to happen.However NDSV will never suffer a socialistic prime minister (especialy the totaly incapable IMO Sergei Stanishev), so BSP will have to give up the prime minister post if they want NDSV to join them. I doubt that BSP will be ready for such loss.
With this coalition failed the only one group left as a possible option for coalition with BSP is Ataka. Now, if BSP had any political moral (which they have already proven not to have) they would never make a coalition with a nationalistic formation therefore granting it a place in the bulgarian government. It is unlikely, however, for BSP to abandon the power they have been waiting for for so many years.
So, to draw the line, we will either have a BSP-DPS-NDSV coalition with Simeon II as a prime minister (a great loss for BSP) or enjoy a BSP-DPS-Ataka government, doomed to controversy and inner instability, which will finaly result in another civil disobedience and a great delay for Bulgaria's entry in EU (EU has already sent warnings, which can easily be interpreted)

Bah, you do not really expect VMRO to pull out the guns and go "free" Macedonia once they enter the parliament, do you? Those times are long gone and methods are long since changed. Though VMRO may growl and hiss about the macedonian problem, they are as extreme in their actions as the agrarian formation. All they will do in the parliament is remnid the government of the problems of the bulgarian "minority" ( ) in Macedonia. Ataka, however, is a different case - iirc since the reforms in 1989 the political history of Bulgaria has never recorded such an event - the parliament is entered by an openly extremist nationalistic formation with clearly fascist goals, driven by hardly sane leaders and relying on people's disappointment of the long and hard democratic reformation. I do not think that extremism has any place in this country and in this century. There is no place for dwelling in the distant past either - "Bulgaria for bugarians only", "Bulgaria on three seas"... publicity, demagogy and what else? How much longer will the memories of "greatness" be resurrected to serve somebody's own political goals, and how much longer will these tactics be bought by the citizens, who dwell in the radiant past and cherish them?

 

Of course I don't expect VMRO to try to annex Macedonia. I know what happened in that respect when the Macedonian VMRO was in power there - absolutely nothing. I was merely providing some background. So chill
At any rate, part of the supporters of Ataka are probably the people who used to vote for some more extreme groups and personalities anyway. Interestingly enough, there may be a split coming in there between less and more radical Ataka members, judging from some of the talk coming from its second most prominent member, Petar Beron. My personal opinion on the whole gang - someone's dogs. On a long leash, maybe, but still dogs. As for using the past - that happens everywhere. Hey, if it were not for people buying the bull that there was a better past that can be rebuilt, do you think the socialists would gather more than 10%? With their total failures the two times they have been in power since 1989?
And speaking of BSP... The fact is, with DPS behind their back they only need something like 5 or 6 people. I wouldn't call that hard to get, especially if a group splinters off from somewhere. Yes, Simeon would not team up with them under Stanishev - but some of his people might break loose, and given the talks going between the two formations (and, imo, the overall moral fiber of some of his party) I wouldn't discount the possibility. Aside from that, a splinter group from Ataka, which (as most far right parties) has some proto-communist ideas for a strong state, might join in, losing what little credibility it had. At this point I would not expect any of the three right parties joining in or splintering (any further than now, that is) but it's still a latent possibility. So, overall, I wouldn't discount a socialist government - sadly, as my accessment of Stanishev isn't much better.