Elections in Easternistan

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In case you care about elections that happen far, far away, and will probably impact your life in, well, little to no way, read on:

It be a day of elections, here in the "flowery fatherland", and there be a whole lot of voting going on. Well, not really that lot. It may be because of the rain, but I seriously think no one cares that much. It's for the European Parliament, for crying out loud, it's not like it determines that much (btw, you guys from the rest of the EU - don't worry, it's just us this time, see you in 2009). To paraphrase the old joke, it's the most independent institution in the world - nothing depends on it.

It seems participation will be in the 30-45% range. Sociologists are going batty because some 20+% really don't know if they will vote, so all predictions are equally likely to be wrong. Still, here's how it looks:

- BSP/PES (incumbent, member of the PES socialists - not that it acts like it, imo) - 6-7 MEPs
- GERB (new formation, likely to be a member of the EPP "conservatives") - 4-5 MEPs
- DPS (in the incumbent coalition, minority-oriented, member of the ALDE liberals*) - 3-4 MEPs
- Ataka (nationalist, member of the ITS radicals) - 2-3 MEPs
- NDSV (in the incumbent coalition, liberal-ish centrist party, member of the ALDE) - 1-2 MEPs
- SDS (the remains of the SDS anti-communist union of the 1990s, seems to be going towards liberalism, member of the EPP, on probation) - 0-2 MEPs
- DSB (another splinter of the old SDS, conservative with some liberal ideas, member of the EPP) - chance for 1 MEP

The only sure thing is that there will be 18 of them, when it's all said and done. By the way, someone had the bright idea to have preferential voting - which in theory means that while you have a list of candidates, you can pick 1 favourite. It should be familiar to the Irish system... except that some wise guy, worried that voters (after the short campaign and confusing information) might actually choose and made it only count if a given candidate has more than 15% of the party vote - otherwise, they go in the order of the list. In practice, I doubt it will work well, which is a pity - I would like to see more of it in the national elections. So what if it takes a day or two more, having a more representative government is worth waiting a bit more imo.

*: liberals as in "small state, free market" sense, not as in the typical US political language. I use it in this sense for the entire post. MEP stands for a representative and means "member of the European Parliament."

[ May 20, 2007, 14:38: Message edited by: The Shaman ]

 

To be honest I don't know much about Bulgarian politics, but it seems like the socialists are going to be strong on this one. Don't really know what to make of it, I just hope the voting turnout will be as high as possible.

Voting turnouts tend to be low in elections for the European Parliament and I really don't wonder. The media does not care and the people do not care, it's very difficult for someone who's moderately interested to even follow what's going on there, which I think it's a bit dangerous. They should either abolish the whole damn thing or get a clear role to it, otherwise people will simply stop caring about it and voting turnouts will be too low to give any resembelance of democracy.

The place seems to be a political graveyard too. Old-school politicians head there to retire, former party leaders ousted through scandals or electoral failiures head there to be forgotten and then there's the useless celebrity candidates. Hopefully the quality of candidates will improve for the next elections but I strongly doubt it. I sooner expect it to be the other way around.

Sorry if the rant was too off topic.

 

Okay, here we are. Turns out it was an interesting evening, after all.

First, the news: it looks like GERB will take it by a hair. The rain from around noon later became a downpour, which explains a participation rate (29%) much lower than expected - but no lower than that in most other new members, strangely enough. However, this led to a vicious three-side struggle for the top, in which everý one of the three big boys - GERB, BSP, DPS (actually, in English it should be MRF - Movement for Rights and Freedoms) had at least 1 polling agency declaring him the winner at any moment. The differences were often in the range of .2 to .8 %, making it too close to call - but call the pundits did.

When press conferences started, conventional wisdom had it that the MRF had won. This was, in fact, significant news since while it had been present in any parliament, it was mostly a minority party with little outreach and relying primarily on its leader's political cunning and talent for coalition building. However, low participation, very disciplined electorate and possibly an active campaign gave it much more than it usually gets, at least in percentage of the vote. The socialists were "given the honor" of having the first press-conference (usually that goes to the party with most votes) which led the GERB to cry foul and leave. Methinks it was also their informal leader - who happens to be Sofia mayor - going to get a photo-op, as the rain caused some damage and made a wall collapse on top of a few cars in one of the suburbs. Luckily, there were no human casualties.

On to the conferences:

1. The BSP head tried to act like there's nothing happening, although they had 5 seats and expected no less than 7. He congratulated his coalition partners, blamed GERB's negative campaign for low activity, and reaffirmed that the governing coalition stays. No one takes responsibility and we try to fudge the past predictions. Yay. (At that time, BSP and MRF were expected to get 5 seats, GERB 4, Ataka 3, NDSV 1)

2. MRF/DPS was next, and they almost managed to make me get permanent damage from always having my eyes rolled. Yes, yes, they managed to reach out to both Bulgarians and Roma. Yes, they prevailed agaisnt the negative GERB campaign. Yes, they will keep their place in the coalition and not push for more concessions (riiiight). Yes, the coalition is stable. No, we're not ready to be the major political force because the Bulgarian society does not accept us as one (ok, that one is right, but darned if it's not a strange thing for a party to say when it has the most votes in an election).

3. Then we had the Ataka conference and things lightened up in an oh-boy-eyes-rolling way. Yes, the Turks are coming, yes, the socialists are in league with Dogan, yes, we will have 13 representatives and Ankara gets 5 for free. Oh boy. Apparently we have some quite impressive free speech - I suppose a lot of countries look askance when you call a party in a governing coalition a "cancer" upon the nation. Aside from that, the Ataka leader seems to be moving towards the mainstream, and he looks like he would want some tactical cooperation from the old SDS/DSB. I hope he doesn't get it, I still have a little respect left for a few people there.

4. That was supposed to be the NDSV, but I was getting sleepy enough without the soporific voice of the king-turned-exile-turned-PM-turned-ex. It was something like 1 a.m. and I needed to get up relatively early today.

However, in the morning we got ourselves a nice little turn: with all inland votes counted, GERB turned out to win with 21.62%, BSP is second with 21.40, and DPS third. That would probably mean either a 5-5-5 for each with 2 MEPs for Ataka and 1 for NDSV, or a 5-5-4 with DPS getting 4. The expat votes are still not included and there is a +/- .3% involved, but it's not likely that DPS or BSP gets much of that. DPS usually gets a sizable expat vote from Bulgarian citizens living in Turkey, but they can't vote in these elections since they have to be in the EU or on official business in the last 2 months. Now we have to wait for the expat, which theoretically could push one of the "old right" parties in, and to see how the vote fraud accusations turn out.

[ May 21, 2007, 12:47: Message edited by: The Shaman ]

 

Well, it looks pretty much settled now. The boom passed, now it's only a little bit of fallout here and there.

Here are the MEP seats:
BSP/PES - 5
GERB/EPP - 5
MRF/ALDE - 4
ATAKA/ITS - 3
NDSV/NSMII (NMSP after its congress)/ALDE - 1

So for the EP the biggest chage is that the elections increased the size of ITS wingnuts by 10%. My apologies, at least I didn't vote for them. BSP, NMSP and the right-wing parties that didn't make the cut started analyzing and analyzing, and chances are we might get a midterm makeover of the government. Unfortunately, the worst (imo) ministers - who are predominantly from MRF - are going to stay. Damn that old fox Dogan. Somehow I think the accusations that his party was buying votes en masse might be more than a little true, and less than a little likely to be investigated. In the meantime, the agriculture minister totally FUBARed the subsidies, EU money, the state reserve, and is getting ready to mess up some more. Oh yeah, and we're going to get floods every serious rain because a certain minister of emergencies was too eager to get everything under her party hat and not too eager to use the budget for, say, draining canals, dikes, and the like. Lucky us.

GERB started behaving like the salvation of the rightist parties, but I'm more than a bit sceptical - so far they've been more than a little uncertain of their economic and social policy, and behave like the typical populists. Unfortunately, it seems Bulgaria still can't get rid of the messiah syndrome when it comes to elections, even when barely 29% vote. Still, it might just drain whatever's left of the old right. For the moment, they are biding their time, trying to build structures and extend invitations to other parties of the right and center.

The splinters of UDF are thinking about reunification and their leaders (almost painlessly) resigned in near unison, but too little too late, as they say. If they get together (big IF), which would probably mean kicking out all the mastodons from the party structures, chances are that they are going to make a passable rightist liberal party, maybe with some of NDSV (more on that later), which might put them squarely in the camp of the EPP part that might want to splinter away. Think the British Conservatives, really. Alternatively, if all of it remains, it will be a typical "Christian"-democratic party with pro-market leanings.

On the left, it's the "hundred-year party) - hundred and seventeen, iirc - having its own critical age. The leftist and rightist lobbies seem to be pushing apart, since it's believed that at least a part of its electorate, previously as disciplined as an army, did not vote because its policy was not left enough. That, and one of the leaders of the "right left" was implicated in a serious scandal and eventually resigned. Well, it turns out that the attorney who accused him might have been way worse when it comes to clean hands, but that's another story. Still, so far the BSP holds together, and chances are that its leader - by making some sacrifices to the angry party opinion - might weather the storm. However, the most problematic topic - whether it's worth it to keep the MRF on board - is still avoided. As for the coalition...

Another party of the governing coalition - NDSV or NMSII (depending on what transcription you use) has more trouble. While the BSP got less than what it expected, the "Czar's men" really messed up, barely making the cut. The party, which bills itself mostly as liberal, seems to have more than a few members who are not happy with the coalition partners and the (lack of) impact the NDSV has - or think that they can get more if they raise hell. So far the party leader manages to keep them in the coalition, but there was almost a rebellion by the pro-liberal side a couple of days ago. This might get interesting, I need to get me some popcorn. Technically, one of the leaders of the Young Turks - Solomon Passi - even implied where they may go if they splinter off: back to the UDF. Apparently, I'm not the only one doubtful of the GERB credentials. Then again, the GERB leader was once NSMII icon, so chances are they know him better than most.

The MRF is in a bit of a weird situation. Technically, they were among the big winners of the Euro-elections, but that might get them in trouble. First, from now on they get taken seriously by the other parties, but also by the other parties' electorate, which might start voting more actively. Second, their coalition partners are starting to seriously worry that they're being used and the MRF is getting money and influence at their expense. Of course, so far the only trouble at their door is that they might be expected to exchange one of their 3 ministers (and by the looks of it, they must have better ones), and the Agriculture ministry that they have been dominating might loosen its grip on the forest administration. It might get a lot worse, but as I've said, their leader is one of the canniest b......s I've seen in politics anywhere.

The other parties... Ataka is, as usual, railing against its hot topics, particularly anything related to the MRF. If I were to find out more, I would have to read their newspaper, and I'm not doing that without some yoghurt against the toxicity.