What Next for the PLO?

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Yasser Arafat seems to be on death's door. So what do you see happening next?

 

Bloody internal power struggle followed by an even harder line against Israel and the West.

 

Chaos, struggle for power and such.

 

He has not chosen a successor. Maybe it will be left up to Ahmed Qureia or Mahmud Abbas to take over.

 

Same exrement, different scumbag

 

Sadly it will probably be more of the same, some new thug scratches his way to top screwing over the Palestinians some more and giving Sharon more excuses to slaughter the non-jews of Israel/Palestina.

 

Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if it got worse. It's quite possible that a more radical faction could gain control; if that happens, attacks against Israel would increase, and Israel would of course escalate their responses.

 

Actually the two are quite different, and Israel would be overjoyed if Abu Mazen, a moderate with no "blood on his hands," emerged as a serious leader. Many Israelis, including those on the right, considered it a mistake by Sharon not to support him more when he was PM. Or then again, are all Palestinians "exrement" to you simply by being Palestinian?

 

Well, I think if Yasser Arafat is out of it, there will follow a major struggle. Whether it remains wholly political, or escalates to a different level, only time will tell.

But Israel will definitely see this as an opportunity to..."flex their political muscles" on Palestine, so to speak.

 

Whoever enters as his replacement better get used to issuing 'retaliatory strikes' since it's what the population of Israel demands whenever Palestinian extremists kill a few Israelis.

It’s pretty much what kept Yasser Arafat in power.

 

The region has been in turmoil and chaos for over 50 years. Arafat's passing is simply handing over the keys to a new Gatekeeper, that's all. Nothing will ever change in that region. It's a way of life.

 

Sharon had ensured during his entire tenure that Arafat be neutered.
People have known for a while that there is nothing that he will be allowed to do politically and publically. The influence of both Arafat and PLO has been on the wane for some time now.
Yes, there will be chaos. But its extent and virulence should be far lower than what one could have expected before Ariel Sharon.

 

I think the first indication of what to expect has appeared. Ali Kazak, The Palestinian Authority delegate to Australia, is saying Arafat may have been poisoned by the Israelis.
No proof offered, but the first bits of kindling for a new fire.

 

Well, they have tried to assassinate him on numerous occasions, just not lately. They even think they succeeded twice in the 80's iirc. One time they shot a bodyguard in Lebanon and another they shot down a plane or something with Arafat in but he managed to survive. I do not have any sources on this it is just what I seem to recollect having heard or read somewhere.

 

The poisoning line sounds like a load of BS to me. Like dmc said, if they wanted to kill Arafat, they've had him under house arrest for the last four years - it wouldn't have been too hard to doctor the necessary evidence, and they certainly wouldn't have allowed him to go to France. I've heard rumours that the "mysterious blood condition" may actually be HIV - some medical evidence supports this contention (specifically low platelet count, which is also consistent with cancer and a couple of other diseases that haven't yet been ruled out), and the hospital he's at has the most prominent HIV physicians in France. I'll see if I can find a link that supports this.

If that HIV allegation turns out to be true, watch the **** start flying... anyone who knows much about Arafat's personal history will know what I mean.

Oh, and if drops off the perch, I'm sure Sharon will be happy. I believe that Arafat has been one of the greatest impediments to peace in the region, and his refusal to name a successor suggests that a power struggle will soon erupt. I'm guessing that the candidate who the Israeli government is most amenable to is the most likely to get up. I don't think any alternative to intifada will be pursued until Ariel Sharon is out of power, either - Sharon seems dedicated to wiping out the Palestinian authority.

EDIT: Got a couple of links:
Israeli Insider: seems biased but interesting nonetheless.
Here's another one that offers some insights.
One more for posterity, too.

[ November 09, 2004, 03:37: Message edited by: NonSequitur ]

 

Well, it's also been argued that Arafat has been good for Sharon since 2002, when the US decided that Arafat wasn't worth talking to after that arms shipment from Iran was intercepted. Sharon seems to accept now that there will be a Palestinian state; he's only trying to get the best deal possible fore Israel. If a credible (that is, in the eyes of the US) Palestinian leadership stands up, Sharon will be forced to negotiate with them. Without that leadership, he pretty much has a free hand.

As for the PLO, they'll probably go on playing their 70s hits at state fairs and the like. Or wait, that was ELO...